Virus mutation, inflationary spiral: surprise scenarios from BAK Economics

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The worst has been avoided. Without a quick presentation of the economic consequences of Covid-19, “the political reaction would have been delayed and the crisis would have been more serious”, according to Martin Eichler. BAK Economics chief economist presented his economic forecast on Tuesday. An exercise that he considers very useful, even if the revisions of the estimates are frequent.

The institute is also revising its growth expectations slightly upwards. The BAK expects economic growth of 3.1% this year in Switzerland and 3.5% next year. In his opinion, vaccination will reduce travel restrictions in Switzerland and around the world. The recovery will be global and will clearly benefit from US economic policy. To quote Karen Ward, strategist at JPMorgan: “When the United States is at the party, the rest of the world also receives an invitation.”